# Intro to Gud Guess

gudguess.com

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In short Gud Guess (GG) offers:

* A chance to win **HUGE** amounts of ETH by predicting the BTC/USD weekly close price **every single week**
* Continuous deflation with [real yield](/real-yield) paid in ETH to all GG holders
* Safe, secure, and 100% on-chain price feed retrieval to drive the game utilizing [Uniswap V3 TWAPs](https://docs.uniswap.org/concepts/protocol/oracle)
* A [positive feedback loop](/intro-to-gud-guess/positive-feedback-loop) mechanism causing perpetual buy pressure and participation in the game and protocol
  {% endhint %}

Gud Guess (GG) is the first-of-its-kind **100% fully on-chain decentralized** lottery style jackpot game that leverages [built-in Uniswap V3 TWAPs](https://docs.uniswap.org/concepts/protocol/oracle) and requires elements of both skill and luck to win HUGE amounts of ETH. For just $2-$5 USD, a gud intuition for where the BTC price is headed, and a little luck you can enter for your chance to win the jackpot ***every single week***.

Gud Guess (GG) provides an ecosystem containing continuous deflation, game theory, competition, and massive liquid ETH win potential to support all crypto enthusiasts from investors to gamers to hobbyists. Traders, chartists, and degens wanting to win big can put their TA/PA/chart skills to the test and guess the weekly close price of BTC/USD for a chance to win the jackpot each week, while investors can invest in a deflationary and ever lifting floor price digital asset.

The mechanics in place result in a [positive feedback loop](/intro-to-gud-guess/positive-feedback-loop). Token and ticket buying for BTC/USD price guessing burns GG, builds the weekly jackpot and rewards GG holders with [real yield](/real-yield). As these items progress, it then incentivizes more token and ticket buying, which burns more GG and raises the jackpot even higher to create the loop.

### For TA experts, chartists, degens, and winnooors

* For just $2-$5 guess the [BTC/USD weekly close price](/gg-game-mechanics-and-jackpot/btc-usd-close-price-calc) for a chance to win the jackpot paid in ETH. Enter as many guesses as you'd like each week.
* As traders buy GG and buy tickets to enter their price guesses, the ETH jackpot grows and GG is burned.

### For investors

* Ever increasing positive feedback mechanism that pushes GG supply down (deflation), lifting the floor price, & raising the jackpot incentivizing participation and ultimately, reinforcing buy pressure forever.
* Receive [real yield](/real-yield) paid in ETH every single week just for holding GG (no staking required).


# Positive Feedback Loop

{% hint style="info" %}
**A** [**positive feedback loop**](https://www.albert.io/blog/positive-negative-feedback-loops-biology/#:~:text=Positive%20Feedback%20Loops,from%20the%20target%20of%20equilibrium.) **occurs in nature when the product of a reaction leads to an increase in that reaction.**
{% endhint %}

<figure><img src="https://2373511864-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FaXhphiLrnOaenPpTPzEl%2Fuploads%2FJJ85INoL4ahg74e1k9RD%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=4a7da52c-4e88-40a4-9a6d-e337f5288f06" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

The fun, competitive, and game theory mechanics of GG theoretically results in ongoing and increasing buy pressure, continuously increasing jackpots to be won, more ticket purchases, and continued deflation as time goes on. With each guess ticket purchase, GG is burned and the jackpot increases. It is no secret that as any jackpot grows to new heights, ticket sales volume sky rockets, and the same will be true with GG. As the jackpot grows bigger and bigger, more guessers will buy tickets for their chance to win big, feeding the loop of continuously burning GG, raising the jackpot and reinforcing buy pressure which will be an attractive mechanism for investors.


# Tokenomics

Gud Guess (GG)

{% hint style="info" %}
The **Gud Guess** token, or **GG**, is the ERC20 token that serves as the fundamental building block & entry point and drives all the mechanisms of the project in perpetuity.
{% endhint %}

### Token Contract

[0x9306f15e4cd8ab9ef017aa720a4a63da73418d00](https://arbiscan.io/token/0x9306f15e4cd8ab9ef017aa720a4a63da73418d00)

### Supply

100,000,000 GG

### Distribution

* 95% added to Uniswap V3 liquidity pools
* 5% sent to provision initial jackpot in token contract

### Tax

{% hint style="warning" %}
**For the first 30 days the buy tax will be 5% to support initial jackpot build up and kickstart GG deflation.**
{% endhint %}

* 1% buy tax (*5% first 30 days post launch*)
* 0% sell tax

### Tax/Ticket Distribution & Perpetual Deflation

GG flows back to the protocol to provide [real yield](/real-yield) and add to the jackpot through small trade taxes and ticket sales:

* 25% is burned
* 75% is converted to ETH and added to the jackpot

### Initial Liquidity

9.5 ETH + 95% token supply (across 3 different fee tier Uniswap V3 pools, see below)

* [0x0b5340a55c6b958b4d665889ff95b420007490a1e2df0e73ce0c9e499cd20302](https://arbiscan.io/tx/0x0b5340a55c6b958b4d665889ff95b420007490a1e2df0e73ce0c9e499cd20302)
* [0xf9a7aa3ac3e1fa49b8d791e30cfbd46530b52eca722c3f9c80dae71eb29729d4](https://arbiscan.io/tx/0xf9a7aa3ac3e1fa49b8d791e30cfbd46530b52eca722c3f9c80dae71eb29729d4)
* [0x4184ccb4b685120dadbed2877d8d91203e8dca261a510525f2dfb94ceca26557](https://arbiscan.io/tx/0x4184ccb4b685120dadbed2877d8d91203e8dca261a510525f2dfb94ceca26557)


# GG Game Mechanics & Jackpot

Game, Jackpot, and BTC Price information

{% hint style="info" %}
The weekly close BTC/USD price is locked & stored each week on Sunday night at 23:59:59 UTC. Tickets to guess the current weekly close price can be purchased up until Thursday 23:59:59 UTC. Tickets purchased after this time will be used for the following weekly close.
{% endhint %}

1. Buy GG and either hold as GG deflates over time + earn weekly [real yield](/real-yield) or play the game
2. To enter the game, purchase tickets using GG and guess the BTC/USD weekly close price.
3. If your guess(es) match the weekly close to $0.01 USD precision, **win the jackpot**!

## Gud Guess Price Guess Tickets

{% hint style="success" %}
All ticket entries to guess the weekly close price are represented as transferrable NFTs to make them portable and easier to manage.
{% endhint %}

After entering your weekly close guess, you will receive a Gud Guess Ticket in the form of an NFT (tGG). This NFT functions exactly like a real world lottery ticket in that it holds the price for your guess or guesses and when the guess was made. At the weekly close, the owner of any winning tickets can claim their share of the ETH jackpot.

## When is guessing cut off for the week?

Users can purchase tickets and guess the weekly close price for the current week up to **Thursday 23:59:59 UTC**. After this time, any subsequent tickets bought are used to guess the following weekly close price.

## Linear Scaling Ticket Cost

We are aware that as the weekly close approaches, the ability to hone in on the weekly close price becomes easier and easier. Therefore, we decided to linearly scale the ticket price [& jackpot share](#linear-scaling-winning-jackpot-share) from the moment guessing opens for that week to when it closes to make it slightly more expensive as the weekly close approaches.

#### Ticket Price

* *Starts*: **$2**
* *Ends*: **$5**

Tickets are purchased with GG tokens, where the amount of tokens per ticket at any moment in time is calculated at purchase time using the [Uniswap v3 oracle](https://docs.uniswap.org/concepts/protocol/oracle) 5-min TWAP price.

## **Linear Scaling Winning Jackpot Share**

In addition to [linear scaling ticket cost](#linear-scaling-ticket-cost), your share of the jackpot payout also scales linearly based on when the guess is made. Guessers entering their guess earlier in the week will earn a higher jackpot payout than guessers entering their guess near the weekly close.

**Jackpot Payout:**

* Start of the week: 38%
* At weekly close: 25%

### **What if there are multiple winners?**

If multiple tickets guess correctly & win in a given week, the jackpot payout is split between the guessers based on when their guess was made in accordance with the [linear scaling jackpot payout](#linear-scaling-jackpot-payout). A guesser that made their guess earlier in the week will receive a larger split of the jackpot payout than a guesser that made their guess later in the week.

#### Jackpot Share

* *Starts*: **90000**
* *Ends*: **60000**

*Example: This week there are 2 jackpot winners, yay!*

1. *One winner that bought a ticket at the moment guessing was available for that particular week would have paid $2 for their ticket and have a jackpot weight of 90000.*
2. *A second winner that bought the moment before guessing cutoff ended for that weekly close would have paid $5 for their ticket and have a jackpot weight of 60000.*

*In the scenario above, the total winner weight is 150000, where the first winner (weight of 90000) would be entitled to 60% of the jackpot and the second winner (weight of 60000) would be entitled to 40% of the jackpot.*

## How is the jackpot filled & paid out?

Through a tiny trade tax (1%) and ticket sales we effectively burn a percentage of the collected GG and use the rest to convert into ETH to continue building the jackpot over time. *In the first 30 days we will have a 5% trade tax to support seeding a healthy jackpot early, as well as, fueling GG burn and deflation.*

**At the weekly close if there are no winners:**

* 99% is rolled over to next week's jackpot
* 1% is distributed to GG holders as [real yield](/real-yield) paid in ETH

**When there are winners for a given week:**

* 38% is distributed as the jackpot to all winners
* 2% delivered as an R\&D fee
* 59% is rolled over to next week's jackpot
* 1% is distributed to GG holders as [real yield](/real-yield) paid in ETH

## How do I claim the jackpot?

Owners of a winning ticket can claim their portion of the jackpot on the Gud Guess website. Any user may execute the jackpot claim process which will send ETH to the winning ticket holders.


# Purchasing Tickets to Guess Weekly Close

gudguess.com

{% embed url="<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KzAWlm_Js4>" %}

## How to guess the BTC/USD weekly close

* Select **Buy Tickets!** to open the guessing window. Ticket pricing per guess, based on the [linear scaling cost](/gg-game-mechanics-and-jackpot#linear-scaling-ticket-cost), is updated and displayed in real-time.<br>

  <figure><img src="https://2373511864-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FaXhphiLrnOaenPpTPzEl%2Fuploads%2FDeav0jgjFzJTCc1wJHg5%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=97ca770b-95e3-4879-8fef-6a06bc332ba4" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
* In the guessing window, enter in the value of what you think BTC/USD will be at the weekly close indicated at the top of the guessing window. Once a value is entered, select **Guess** to add this price guess to your ticket.<br>

  <figure><img src="https://2373511864-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FaXhphiLrnOaenPpTPzEl%2Fuploads%2FMtCQLUEdJPSlKWjdxCvL%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=95a36ff9-0aee-4f23-8476-73bd70a2de71" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

  You may enter as many guesses as you would like manually, or bulk guessing can be made by uploading a CSV file formatted with a single price guess per row. Select the download link to download a CSV template file to be used as an example.<br>
* Don't know what to guess? No problem, simply hit the Quick Pick button and a price that is +/- 3% of the current Bitcoin price will be entered for you automatically.<br>

  <figure><img src="https://2373511864-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FaXhphiLrnOaenPpTPzEl%2Fuploads%2FP2AyoX0gJlZ6mOjPcbdJ%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=4b1740bb-da39-4f08-9349-e34a025d18dd" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
* As your price guesses are entered, they will be added to the list below and can be removed as needed by selecting the **Delete** icon.<br>

  <figure><img src="https://2373511864-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FaXhphiLrnOaenPpTPzEl%2Fuploads%2FKYOtovxR03xprifjDJc9%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=5efe8131-9a32-4dd4-a9e7-780f2a9a9c58" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
* After a guess is entered, the total number of entries and total cost, both in GG tokens and USD value, are displayed.

  <figure><img src="https://2373511864-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FaXhphiLrnOaenPpTPzEl%2Fuploads%2FDaOKBk266dOff6hftYUR%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=9eff155b-fb60-4b8f-913f-5a96baeccd09" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
* Once all of your guesses are entered, select **Confirm** to purchase your [Gud Guess ticket NFT](/gg-game-mechanics-and-jackpot#gud-guess-price-guess-tickets).<br>

  <figure><img src="https://2373511864-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FaXhphiLrnOaenPpTPzEl%2Fuploads%2F7vRXqQ7qjBaApp3Am0V8%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=d34094dd-77f7-4c59-b7ef-6c6c4713ced2" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
* You entries for the current week and / or following week can be found under the **My Entries** section.


# Price Precision

{% hint style="info" %}
All guesses and BTC/USD weekly close prices will be denominated & stored **to the US cent ($0.01) rounded down / floored**, and therefore any/all winners will be those who guessed the weekly close at $0.01 precision of the final stored price.
{% endhint %}

We wanted to support an easy enough price precision that it was possible to win on some relative frequency, particularly when there are increasing numbers of entries as the jackpot fills up, but difficult enough to win so that the jackpot continues building up over time. We also wanted to ensure that it was relatively unfeasible & expensive to purchase enough tickets in bulk to spread guesses across wide ranges of the chart (i.e. at $2/ticket with a precision of $0.01, it costs $20 to buy tickets to buy guesses across $0.10 of the BTC/USD close price, $200 to buy guesses across $1 of the close price, $2k to buy guesses across $10 of the close price, $20k to buy guesses across $100 of the close price, and so on).


# BTC/USD Close Price Calc

### Where does the weekly close price come from?

We utilize the built-in capabilities of [Uniswap v3 oracles](https://docs.uniswap.org/concepts/protocol/oracle) to calculate and store relevant asset prices for the Gud Guess game.

The BTC/USD price we use for Gud Guess is calculated on-chain using 5 minute interval TWAP prices from the Uniswap v3 0.05% fee pools [WBTC/WETH](https://www.dextools.io/app/en/arbitrum/pair-explorer/0x2f5e87c9312fa29aed5c179e456625d79015299c) and [WETH/USDC](https://www.dextools.io/app/en/arbitrum/pair-explorer/0xc31e54c7a869b9fcbecc14363cf510d1c41fa443) on Arbitrum and normalizing to a [predetermined precision USD value](/gg-game-mechanics-and-jackpot/price-precision).

When the weekly close occurs, we calculate and store the final close price immediately and any winners can begin claiming their share of the jackpot at that time.


# Triggering Weekly Close

Since every aspect of GG exists on-chain which requires on-chain transactions for events to occur, a transaction is required to trigger the locking and storing of the weekly close each week. Therefore the weekly close price could be retrieved and locked several seconds to minutes after the exact weekly close.

Locking and storing the weekly close price happens one of two ways, whichever happens first after Sunday night 23:59:59:

1. Any buy/sell/transfer transaction of GG that happens on or after Sunday night 23:59:59 will trigger the weekly close to be locked.
2. Anyone can manually execute the \`submitClose()\` contract function after the weekly close time to trigger.


# Real Yield

To further incentivize and reward GG holders, ETH is distributed to all GG holders every single week (no staking required), regardless of whether there is a jackpot winner that week or not.

## How much do I yield?

Holders earn yield based on the total amount of GG they are holding and the total ETH jackpot pool size.&#x20;

1% of the total jackpot pool is distributed in ETH to all holders proportional to their GG holdings every week.

## How often does yield distributed?

ETH is distributed each week after the [weekly close has been triggered](/gg-game-mechanics-and-jackpot/triggering-weekly-close) (i.e. shortly after Sunday, 23:59:59 UTC).

## **How do I get my yield?**

Yield can be claimed on [the Gud Guess website](https://gudguess.com/) at any time.

Additionally, unclaimed yield is automatically sent to a holder's wallet when the wallet performs any GG transaction, such as buying a ticket or buying / selling / transferring GG.&#x20;


# Disclaimer

#### Decentralized Technology

Gud Guess is proud to be completely decentralized on the Arbitrum-One network. Every single mechanic in the Gud Guess ecosystem functions 100% on-chain. As long as the Arbitrum-One network is running, so is Gud Guess.

#### Responsibility

Because of the decentralized nature of the project, Gud Guess and any developers & contributors are not responsible for any loss you incur while using the dapp or protocol. Please always DYOR and ensure you understand the actions you take when using any blockchain project or technology.

#### Audit

All Gud Guess smart contracts have been [audited by Solidity Finance](https://solidity.finance/audits/GudGuess/).

#### Gud Guess Tickets

Tickets for the current week's jackpot must be bought before guessing closes each week after **Thursday 23:59:59 UTC**. The purchase transaction must be processed prior to this deadline. We do not have any control over transaction speed, therefore we are not responsible for any tickets purchased submitted before the guessing close times. It is not possible to inject tickets for the current week after the guess close time.

All Gud Guess tickets are non-refundable.

#### On-chain Uniswap V3 Price Feeds

As mentioned on the [BTC/USD Close Price Calc page](/gg-game-mechanics-and-jackpot/btc-usd-close-price-calc), the BTC/USD price comes from a TWAP price built into the Uniswap V3 protocol that anyone can see on-chain. We recommend researching how [TWAPs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-weighted_average_price) work, their security implications, benefits, and risks.